Right at this moment this is possibly the most-asked question on the social media platform. The BJP supporters and the pro-BJP authors are very weary of making any outright projection in favour of BJP. They seem a little unsure or uncertain. Though a few, making some desperate attempts to sound confident and positive about the BJP’s victory.
In 2014 BJP won 282 seats and NDA won 336 seats. And in 2019 BJP won 303 seats and NDA won 353 seats. Some people are playing safe by taking a mean value between 336 & 353. However, we need to assess the results of 2014 and 2019 separately. We simply can not take them to be benchmarks. No two elections are the same for a variety of reasons.
In 2014 Modi spoke of “Achhe Din” Swach Bharat, bringing back black money, Rs.15 lakh in every account, 2 crores of jobs every year, and a plethora of other promises. Against this Congress failed to put up any cohesive agenda. Congress seemed clueless about how to take the pro-BJP wave. Congress was devastated fighting the allegation of corruption. It didn’t have any energy to put up a strong fight against BJP. It didn’t have any strategy to take on BJP. Congress didn’t have any preparation. Till 2014 Indian politics was vastly different. There was no methodical battle preparedness. So whatever had to happen, happened. To make the matter worse Manmohan Singh was no politician.
As said in the GodFather Tom Hagen was no wartime consigliere. Manmohan Singh never knew what was cooking up. And when things erupted Congress never knew what to do against the concerted strategy of BJP. So Congress faced humiliating defeat like quite often the Indian team faced defeat on fast and bouncy wickets of England & Australia. A lot depends on the wicket. The battle for 2014 and 2019 was on the pitch prepared by BJP. Congress and other opposition parties found it lacking to deal with the BJP attack. 2014 was also possibly the first election where BJP was working with a professional strategist - Prashant Kishor. Elections are no longer fought alone in the field. A larger part of it is fought in the war room by the strategist. On top of it, BJP put in service a massive IT team to attack Congress and its leaders round the clock.
But lies have a shorter lifespan. And BJP’s facade started peeling off soon. Congress as well as other opposition was disintegrated in 2019 as usual. Though Congress winning MP, CG Rajasthan, and forming government in Karnataka in 2018 sent a strong message to BJP that the battle is no longer easy. People were not falling prey to their lies and false stories of growth. So BJP needed something big and very big to create a strong wave in its favour. So we got Pulwama. And BJP won a massive victory courtesy of Pulwama. To make the matter easy for BJP, Rahul was nowhere near his best. He was considered a casual part-time politician
But despite having a weak opposition, despite all claims of growth and something equivalent to a nuclear weapon - Pulwama BJP could add only 21 seats more taking its tally from 282 to 303. and NDA tally to 336 to 353 and the addition of only 17 seats in 2019. Something of the scale of Pulwama and Balakot could add only 17 seats to the NDA.
Come 2024, the BJP has been fully exposed on all counts. People know Congress rule was any day better in terms of cost of living, prices of fuel, gas, and employment. The biggest irony is that now people know the BJP is the most corrupt party, possibly 10 times worse than Congress. None of the corruption allegations against Congress were proven. As against the Electoral Bond Exposure has fully exposed the corrupt nature of BJP. The people remember the PM CARES fund which could be another corruption bomb if it gets exposed. All the alleged corrupt politicians are now in the BJP camp whitewashed. ED/CBI/IT do not bother them. ED holding AAP leaders in jail without a shred of evidence. Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren has again without any evidence. media bought out. The judiciary seems influenced and compromised. The election commission seems working as a laundryman for BJP. All the stories of growth have fallen flat on its face. Unemployment is at its highest ever. Ruppe at its lowest value. Our foreign policy has failed. Not a single macroeconomic parameter is in favour of the Modi government.
So come 2024, nothing is in favour of BJP. No hope for Achhe Din, no hope for 2 crores job every year, no promise of bringing back black money, no promise of Rs.15 lakh in every account, no smart city, no promise of giving petrol and gas cheaper, no Pulwama, BJP can not shout Congress is corrupt, no public anger against Congress. People no longer trust the Hindu Khatre main hain propaganda (Hindus are in danger), Ram Mandir euphoria is gone, and people are tired of the mandir-masque debate.
What the BJP is trying to sell is the “Modi Ki Guarantee”. What will people do with his guarantee? Where is Modi’s credibility in giving free ration? Where is he making value addition by providing free ration or Aayushman Bharat? Does the BJP have something that can be sold to the public apart from trying to terrorize people about Congress?
Left-right and center horse trading of political parties and leaders has exposed the corrupt nature of the BJP. I am not sure to what extent the NDA partner will be able to hold their shine after backstabbing their founder and doing multiple somersaults.
As against this Rahul has come up a very strong and serious leader. This time he means business. People do not doubt his intentions and credibility. He is leading from the front despite all constraints like Congress bank accounts frozen just before the election, congress leaders and MP candidates poached. In fact, all these speak of the BJP’s fear. People are now ready to listen to him and take him seriously. You can not doubt the intentions and dedication of someone who has been doggedly sticking to his ground despite so many rejections without any complaints.
Like cricket ball BJP’s shine has gone, and the wicket has fallen flat. Not possible to get any extra bounce and swing. The opposition batsman is strongly set. BJP can only try some spin bowling. But people can read Modi’s intentions.
I do not see any reason why should people give the BJP even the kind of mandate it gave in 2014. It is true that organizationally Congress is very weak. But the leadership matters and Rahul has been able to send his message straight to people. If you subtract point by point score for BJP’s 2014 victory the picture will look very gloomy for BJP. I have prepared some rough-cut hypothetical benchmarks to assess the situation is hand. This could be debated. However, it will give some food for thought.
If you look at most of the perceived value parameter points BJP seems to have lost on all counts while Rahul & Congress have made massive gains concerning their image in 2014. I am not sure to what extent these gains will affect or translate into people’s mandate. However, BJP winning 300+ seats simply looks improbable unless BJP resorts to large-scale manipulation. There is nothing that seems in favour of BJP apart from a possible Hindutva wave. I will not be surprised if BJP’s numbers go down drastically. Though BJP is also aware of these calculations. And it might have worked out strategies to counter it. That is why I am afraid of massive manipulations.
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