Very good question. What preventing Pakistan from fully integrating AJK/POK >
Its not that Pakistan doesn’t want to, but it has been smartly given a Checkmate.
Pakistan in a catch 22 situation. Internally there would be pressure form the mainland Pakistani people on their Government to attach POK/AJK as a counter measure of Indian move as well to prevent any future Indian attempt to recapture POK.
However the moment they make any such move they will lose the support of POK people. The POK people may revolt against Pak government. A hostile POK will affect its strength adversely along LOC. India Government would get upper-hand in improving situation in J&K as well as to make advancement in POK. Pakistan Government will lose the mask/moral right to fight for freedom of J&K. Their international stand will get diluted. And if they do not take a call to attach POK, it would always be an opportunity open for India.
Imran Khan Government is in a state of total confusion and frustration. They are not getting any support from international community, not even from the OIC countries. OIC countries are rather standing with India. FATF Asia-Pacific Group has already put Pakistan in 'enhanced blacklist, financiallythey are not in position to fight any sustained war with India. Their military might is no match to that of India. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh already said that the future of India’s ‘No First Use’ (NFU) policy on nuclear weapons depended on “circumstances”. Mr. Singh’s statement has raised apprehensions on the likely revision of India’s NFU policy and nuclear doctrine.
Pakistan knows that whatever counter action they have taken ( after India removing Article 370 ) would hurt them more than India and at some point of time they would be forced to call off those action. Which would make it lose its face badly to its own people as well as to the world community.
Further in such a condition if they decide to wage a war against India as they are threatening they will not get any support from any corner and it will give India an legitimate opportunity/right to go all out and recapture POK. Possibly that’s the reason they are talking about nuclear war so often, so that world community intervene and stop India from making any further move.
Pakistan understands that Article 370 is gone for ever, it can not come back. Now POK is at risk. If they are to make any discussion in future it would be on POK not on J&K.
The best thing they can expect now is that the International community to put pressure on India and extract some kind of statement from India that it would not make any unilateral move in POK. But to get such a statement from India International community has to give an absolute guarantee to India that Pakistan would not make any interference in J&K and would stop all kind of proxy war against India.
And till such time Pakistan gives such a declaration and stop all terrorist activities in J&K, International community can not put any pressure on India. Overall no gain for Pakistan.
For the first time India Government has put the ball in Pakistan's court and pushed it on its back foot. A brilliant tactical move by Modi Government.
RAAD missile doesn’t add any new threat to India. Pakistan already has a host of nuclear-capable missiles which could reach most of the Indian sub-continent. Well, an extended-range cruise missile has its advantage because of its low trajectory or what we call surface-hugging flight path, which makes its detection difficult for tracking and intercepting. The missile could be fired from well within Pakistani airspace to strike targets deep inside India which was hitherto possible only through their ballistic missiles. But Pakistan is anyway having the strike range.
However, with RAAD-II Pakistan will enhance its striking ability with high precision. Which a modern-day warfare requirement to avoid unnecessary collateral damage. In the Gulf War as well as in most recent wars we see the usage of cruise missiles only for pinpoint accuracy. Cruise missiles are also cost-effective. So with RAAD-II Pakistan can plan to hit a precise target.
Pakistan on Tuesday announced its successful test of an air-launched cruise missile called the Ra'ad-II on 18th Feb 2020, the weapon has a range of 600km capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. Raad is an Air Launched Cruise Missile(ALCM) The Ra'ad-II cruise missile is a modernized version of the Ra'ad-I missile, which Pakistan first test-fired in 2007 and was claimed to have a range of 350km. These missiles are known for their low-level flight which is staying relatively close to the surface of the earth to avoid detection from anti-missile systems and are designed to carry large payloads with high precision. The key is that the missile is guided entirely to the target under its own power.
As against this India has its BrahMos range of supersonic cruise missiles with a 290 KM range rated as the world’s fastest cruise missile which can be launched from submarines, ships, aircraft, or land. It's understood that the upgraded version with a 500 KM range is also ready. According to the CEO of BrahMos Aerospace, Sudhir Kumar Mishra, Brahmos-A when fired from Su-30 aircraft can reach targets thousands of kilometers away. India is already developing its Nirbhay cruise missiles with a range of 1500 KM.
In 2016 India and Russia approved an extension to the range of the supersonic cruise missile BrahMos, doubling it to 600 kilometers, according to an official with the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD). A hypersonic version of the missile, BrahMos-II, is also presently under development with a speed of Mach 1-2 to boost aerial fast strike capability. It is expected to be ready for testing by 2020.
The success of Mission Shakti, in which an anti-satellite (ASAT) missile destroyed a satellite orbiting 300 km in space, demonstrates India's capability to protect itself from satellite surveillance in the event of war as well as the ability to cripple the enemy's space-based communications and navigation systems within the opening hours of a conflict. Once an ASAT weapon system is operationalized, India's military will have the power to blind the enemy's reconnaissance satellite coverage. Before India, only three nations had demonstrated ASAT capability - Russia, the US, and China.
Meanwhile, India is going have to an S-400 Missile defense system that is capable of tracking and destroying both Cruise & Ballistic missiles. Washington also recently cleared the Integrated Air Defense System for sale to India.
Missiles are very important parts of modern warfare. However, In a war game, the victory depends on multiple aspects, not just on firepower. Increasing the striking range is only a question of time and budget, the technology is already available.
Both India and Pakistan are among the poorest nations of the world in terms of per capita earnings. But India and Pakistan are spending huge amount of their budget allocation and limited foreign exchange on defense modernization, which could otherwise be used for the development of the nation. No one is going to be a winner in the rat race, there is no end to this race. The only possible winners are the countries from which we procure these defense equipment.
I am referring to an article by Vinayak Jain published on 4th October 2019, which beautifully draws comparisons of defense expenditure. Start off by comparing India’s and Pakistan’s historical defense budgets (amounting to a billion US dollars).
Now for some other interesting statistics regarding the defense spending of the two neighbors.
Which nations were top weapon suppliers during periods when both nations were at war? (time period = year preceding a war, year of the war, and the subsequent year)
We turn to the top 5 weapon suppliers for India and Pakistan from 1950 to 2018 enabling a holistic picture that caters to wars and changing geopolitical times.
Of the total $4.00 bn of weapons imported from Israel, $2.09 bn have been purchased since 2014 (52%), and that is when Narendra Modi came to power! As the importer of arms, India ranks first with imports of $121.1 bn while Pakistan ranks 18th in importing arms worth $37.4 bn.
To conclude, here is a brief comparison of India’s and China’s defense spending, after all, China is India’s most potent long-term threat (amount in billions).
Some more valuable statistics for both nations.
A major takeaway from the above data is that China has not been frenzied about military development. This is in stark contrast to Pakistan or even to most Western countries. A 2% military spending of GDP and 10.8% of government spending is not exorbitant. To lay this in perspective here is the spending as a % of GDP for a few other nations:
France: 2.6%
South Korea: 2.8%
Russia: 3.8%
America: 3.8%
Saudi: 10.1%
A major takeaway from the above data is that China has not been frenzied about military development. This is in stark contrast to Pakistan or even to most Western countries. A 2% military spending of GDP and 10.8% of government spending is not exorbitant. To lay this in perspective here is the spending as a % of GDP for a few other nations
France: 2.6%
South Korea: 2.8%
Russia: 3.8%
America: 3.8%
Saudi: 10.1%
India’s defense spending looks justified to a large extent looking into China’s defense budget, a country which is not so friendly with India, a country which is ambitiously expanding its influence around the Indian subcontinent, the Bay of Bengal as well as the Indian Ocean. But looking into China’s economy might, it might not be possible for India to catch up with China.
Further, we need to remember that China’s defense expenditure is domestic almost in its entirety. So even if the expenditure is huge, it's helping the Chinese economy. This is not the case with India and Pakistan, we are importing our defense equipment. This doesn’t help our economy in any way.
If India wants to keep up the pace, India has to swiftly move into the development of indigenous defense technology as well as manufacturing.
