Is NDA losing in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Bihar from its 2019 tally? Is there any scope of compensating from other states?

No, BJP cannot compensate if it loses numbers in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Bihar. Which are the major states from where BJP can bring bigger numbers? Let's consider the 2019 election result. In MP BJP won 28 seats out of 29. So there is no scope for increasing the number. In Gujarat, BJP won all 26 seats, again no scope for increasing numbers. In Rajasthan, NDA won all 25 seats. In Bengal, BJP won 18 seats. I do not see BJP increasing its tally there. At best BJP may add 2–4 seats. This is an assumption only. There is absolutely no guarantee that BJP will increase the number in Bengal. In Odisha, the BJP won 8 seats. I do not see BJP increasing its tally there. At best 1–2 seats may be. IN CG BJP won 9 out of 11 seats. In Jharkhand, NDA won 12 out of 14 seats. Here NDA might lose a big number. In the NE region, NDA won 19 out of 25 seats. This time BJP targeting 22 seats, but I have my doubts. Instead, BJP may lose numbers here or at best hold the 2019 tally.

In UP BJP won 62 seats in full Modi wave and Pulwama wave. In 2014, BJP won 71 seats in UP. I am not sure if BJP can do that magic again. There is no special wave this time despite the Ram Mandir. BJP has to do extraordinarily well to increase its number in UP. UP is the only state where BJP can hope to compensate for its loss in Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Bihar. Andhra Pradesh is another state where NDA ( BJP+TDP+Jana Sena) may look for some increase in number. I am not aware of the ground pulse of Andhra Pradesh.

In Maharashtra, NDA won 41 out of 48 seats. In Bihar, NDA won 39 out of 40 seats. In Karnataka, NDA won 26 seats out of 28. NDA is projected to lose big numbers in these three states. In 2019 BJP won 303 seats, and the NDA tally was 353 seats. So overall for the 2024 election, BJP never had any room for winning 400 plus seats. The 400+ seat claim is just to make people fool. In fact, NDA’s 2019 tally of 353 was possibly the best it could do.

For the above analysis, it is clear that NDA has no room to compensate for any major loss from Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Bihar unless the Modi government does some macro-level cheating and manipulation. I have already written in another answer that of NDA by any means cross the figure of 300, rest assured that some major manipulation and cheating have happened.