Will BJP get 400 seat in 2024 general election?

I am not sure whether this projection of 400 seats is for BJP alone or the NDA. This looks fairly difficult for the BJP alone to win 400 seats on its own. And even for the NDA together, it's going to be extremely difficult if not impossible. However, you do not know the psyche of Indian voters. They have many times baffled the political pundits. For example, in 2004 nobody expected Vajpayee Ji’s BJP to lose out. For BJP to increase its seats from 303 to 400 there has to be an extraordinary wave in favour of the BJP. As of now, we do not see any such wave.

Image source - India Today

If the low turnout in the first phase of the poll is any indication then the picture is not bright. In the first phase, 102 constituencies have gone for polling, the largest among all the seven phases. BJP can only hope and pray that the fall in the polling percentage is only because of the drop in opposition votes. that the opposition voters are disheartened about probable BJP victory and as such have not come out to vote. If we go by the above picture the highest drop in the voting percentage is in 39 constituencies where BJP has been winner in 2019. There has been an increase in voting percentage in 12 seats where Congress has been the winner in 2019. In Tamil Nadu, there has been a moderate drop in voting percentage from 72.4% to 69.7%, which is 2.7%, relatively lower than the national average of dropout.

What is cause of concern is that in major states like Bihar, MP, and UP, the drop has been significant. In MP the fall is very steep at 7.3% from 75.1% in 2019 to 67.8% in 2024. It would be worthwhile to note that in the 2023 MP assembly election, the voting percentage was 77.74% where BJP was the winner with a record number of seats. What happened to MP, that in just four months of the assembly election, the voter turnout dropped by 10% from 77.74% in the assembly election 2023 to 67.8% in the general election 2024?

In UP, the fall has been at 5.5% from 66.6% in 2019 to 61.5% in 2024. In Bihar, the drop has been at 4.3% from 53.6% in 2019 to 49.3% in 2024. So I do not know how to explain this drop in voting percentage. In 1984 the turnout percentage went up by 7.09% when Congress won the record 414 seats. For BJP to win a phenomenal victory with 400 plus seats would ideally require an extraordinary wave in its favour. The 1984 election was so one-sided that NTR’s TDP was the second-largest party with 30 seats. As of now, we do not have a similar recipe for the BJP to win a spectacular victory of 400-plus seats. This year I have avoided making any predictions, so I am not giving numbers to any party.