Hope and optimism prevailed over reality. We got consumed by the marketing brilliance of Modi and BJP that something great is going to come which India hitherto has not seen. We were consumed by some imaginary Gujarat Model. We never asked what was that Gujarat model. We were shown a larger-than-life picture, a vision of - Achhe Din, bringing back Black Money, 2 crores employment, Make in India, Skill India, Clean Ganga, Swachh Bharat, reduced price fuel, and Rupee appreciating.
I was never convinced about bringing black money from the Swiss bank or providing 15 lahks in every account kind of gimmick. But overall convinced that good days would be coming. People were greatly convinced that the UPA government was hugely corrupted, though personally I was never convinced even then that a 1.76 lakh crores 2G scam was possible. Then Anna Hazare, Lokpal Bill, etc. It seemed India was going to be transformed into a new India. In those days I was deeply engrossed in my profession, which was not much akin to political or economic analysis. The need was not there. I was thoroughly enjoying my professional domain and tackling the challenges in my profession. Nor was I on any social media.
In fact, the Indian economy started facing some kind of stagnation constraint since 2013 second half. I personally felt that some kind of dynamism was required. This I remember very clearly since I was also in a transition phase. I took charge of our Chhattisgarh operation on 1st July 2012 and moved to MP on 1st October 2013 with a hard-earned promotion clearing a tough assessment. A lot of new things happening personally as well as nationally. I was looking forward to having a great time ahead. But I soon realized whatever happening was not for good.
My regular readers would possibly know that I was extensively connected to banking operations starting from the district cooperative banks to RBI. For the first time I saw that banks were under stress. But then I was hopeful that things would improve. However, since 2016 things started deteriorating faster. And then the devastating decision of demonetization was taken. Possibly very few would have the kind of extensive first-hand exposure I had with the entire length of banking arm - from the district cooperative banks to RBI, from currency paper manufacturing to banknote printing operation, and even to the inputs of currency paper import. One of the CEOs of a district cooperative bank told me that two of the DCCBs had more than 600 crores deposits in old demonitised currency of 500 & 1000 rupee notes which RBI refused to exchange for over 4 months. I have seen the pain of bankers as well as of the people, the pain of Security Paper Mill that manufactures the currency paper as well as the Bank Note Press printing currency.
And then within less than one year of demonetization, GST was introduced. Indian economy never recovered after that. This is the period I moved to Mumbai and I was extensively engaged and interested in the financial domain as the zonal controller for the west zone of my organization. I started taking an active interest in pursuing Indian economics which I was always interested in, being the subject of my passion. I went a little deeper into economics during Rajan’s time to understand his policies and have discussions with the bankers.
Things were in pretty bad shape. Mumbai being the HQ of most corporate houses, the effects were clearly visible. Most organizations went for massive job cuts even by 2017. By 2018 the picture became further gloomy. I was still hopeful and thought that it was an initial shock after two big events - Demonetization and GST, and things would stabilize as the government was also claiming. I did vote for BJP in 2019, thinking that Modi Ji needs to be given time to do corrections. But I was deeply shocked to see the kind of policy decision NS started taking. She simply never tried to understand the situation, nor she is capable. I never saw any effort from the Modi government to bring the economy back on track. Modi Ji never tried to appoint some capable people to make things better. And I lost all my love for Modi. I never had much of an issue with his Hindutva to Ram Mandir.
Modi Ji is the first PM I have extensively followed for his political as well as economic policies. Before that, I followed MMS very closely from the days of the global recession in 2008–2009. I was highly impressed with his economic prudence. You can say I became a conscious citizen economically in 2008 and politically since 2014. I started writing in Quora only in 2019. My hatred for Modi is nothing degenerative. I would say 90% of it is because of the destruction of the economy and 10% political. Had he been making correct economic decisions, possibly I wouldn’t have much of complaints about his political outlook. Who cares who is ruling if the economy is in the right direction? Possibly I wouldn’t also have cared.
Had Modi Ji maintained the economy in the right perspective, I would have ignored his political design. When I say economics, I mean it. I have been a student of economics. My exposure to the banking domain is quite extensive and in the last 7–8 years I have taken great interest in understanding the Indian economy. When I first joined the service, my Boss asked me to pick up one subject on which I had to speak extensively, and I picked up economics. My love for economics is nothing new. So I don’t think that my standpoint is impulsive or I have been abducted or taken prisoner by any political viewpoint. Yes, I am a strong supporter of democracy and consider myself to be a rational person.
In our organization, there is a process of assessment by an international agency for all the senior positions. Without passing that assessment no one will get promoted, no matter what is their field performance or achievement. Anybody who has failed that assessment center on three attempts would never qualify again. Because his thought process, psychometric analysis, leadership matrix, and other parameters are not suitable for strategic positions. These are structural elements that don’t change no matter how many times you appear for the assessment. We have seen Modi for the last nine years. He is simply not capable of doing anything differently in the economic domain. Politically also he is a full-bloomed flower and fully exposed. There is nothing more to come from him even if he wins his 3rd term as PM. He is beyond his prime.
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