Let the public decide who should win. This time I have avoided making any prediction for two reasons. Firstly for paucity of time to make a pan India level assessment. Secondly, I do not see much utility in taking so much pain for an unpaid job. Plus the way things are manipulated, quite often realistic assessment is not possible. I think people all over the nation are very confused about the outcome this time. So I will abstain from making any number prediction this time even though I have some numbers in my mind. So let the public decide who should win. But things are changing fast. Nobody could expect in December-January that the situation would be like this.
As I have in my other answer, till January BJP was distinctly in a position to win by a big margin. Its recipe was just as best as it could be. But then it started overdoing and things started deteriorating. You just can not make your tea tastier by adding four more spoons of sugar. The same is true with salt, adding a half spoonful more salt may make the dish completely unconsumable.
The disqualification of the Surat Congress candidate, forcing the Indore Congress candidate was good enough to spoil BJP’s image. Winning or losing two constituencies wouldn’t have made any great difference to the BJP. but what it did is utter stupidity. Forcing a few other Congress leaders to join the BJP just before the election was also absolutely uncalled for. These gimmicks do not work anymore rather they spoil the party’s image. People now understand what kind of forces work behind such last-minute moves BJP with its unlimited power can practically make anyone join the BJP. Such a move need not be seen by the public as Congress weakening. These become counterproductive.
The arrest of Hemant Soren and Kejriwal just before the election, I believe is suicidal. If at all the law demanded their arrest, they could have been arrested six months back or maybe after the election. After the exposure of the Electoral Bond details the story of corruption did not impress the public anymore. Now people are clear that BJP is no clean party. People now know that the BJP is corrupt by a much bigger proportion than all the other parties. The ED/IT/CBI have lost their credibility long back. Now people know how BJP has misused them to extract electoral bond money.
Throwing out three previous CMs - Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Dr, Raman Singh, and Vasundhara Raje unceremoniously and appointing absolute newcomers as CM has increased discontentment level in the party both at the worker level as well among the senior party leaders. Tickets given to the turncoat are another reason for discontentment in the party. Plus BJP will be missing the wholehearted support of Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Dr, Raman Singh, and Vasundhara Raje, who know the pulse of their respective state like the back of their hand.
The regressive action of Congress is also antagonizing the neutral voters. Congress' bank account was frozen just before the election. Withdrawal of money from the Congress accounts by the IT department, and serving tax notice of over Rs.3000 crores just expose the fascist character of the Modi government. All these could work as suicidal self-goals for the BJP. Now people are afraid that if elected for the 3rd term could be disastrous for the nation. There are enough indications that the BJP will change the constitution in its 3rd term if elected to power. Already misuse of power has reached the extreme level. Plus all those EMV controversies. Doubt and suspicions are all around. Now people are really worried.
I will not be surprised if the BJP gets defeated or its number comes down heavily. A section of voters may still stick to BJP, but there is massive erosion in their confidence. Meanwhile, Congress is progressing steadily. People now listening to Rahul intently and giving him and Congress serious consideration. It is making sense to people to listen to Rahul, what he is saying, and what he has been saying over the last 2–3 years about the corruption of the Modi government. Now only the Electoral Bold scam has been exposed. I am sure there are many more to be exposed - like the PM care and so many others. The fall in voter turnout in major states like UP, Bihar, MP, and Maharashtra definitely will have a story to tell. In MP the drop in voter turnout is around 10% if we compare the turnout of the assembly election 2023. Let us wait till 4th June.
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