This is an old question around a year back and I commented on one of the answers from a Pro-BJP author. I questioned and commented “Why are you not bullish about BJP’s decisive victory? I do not see any reason BJP to face defeat.” Congress was yet to win Karnataka. And Congress was as disintegrated as it could be. This was the period when BJP was doing exceedingly well winning five out of seven state elections - Goa, UTT, Manipur, UP, and Gujarat. Congress was defeated in Punjab by AAP. Congress could win only one state - HP. Honestly speaking I couldn’t find any reason why should a strong pro-BJP author not feel confident about the BJP’s victory in early 2023. But he wrote the answer on a very cautious note. I am quoting the following section from his answer…
“Irrespective of the result of the 2024 election, one can safely say that BJP would not meet the fate of the Congress of 2014.
In 2014, Congress lost 162 seats and won just 44 seats. Even if BJP loses the 2024 election (the chances of BJP's loss are very less at this point), it will be above 180 seats. There are the following reasons for this -”
Yes, I do agree that come what may BJP will not hit the low of Congress in 2014 or 2019. But I will not be surprised if BJP’s number comes down drastically. Right at this moment the public mood is uncertain. Despite a massive publicity campaign Modi’s Guarantee not showing any excitement in the field.
The apprehension was very evident. I was bewildered, I couldn’t have taken the answer from an author with around 15K followers lightly. I was wondering what could have worked in the author’s mind to be on such a cautious foot. Incidentally, my small comments are also well received. For the last few days, my comments have been getting regular upvotes. It seems of late the question has again become very pertinent and people are finding my comments meaningful.
So the question comes - Whether BJP will lose as badly in the 2024 election as the Congress lost in the 2014 election? I am again bewildered - why should people see such a possibility? Is there any reality for such an outcome? All the opinion polls have predicted a strong victory for BJP. BJP itself targeting 400 plus seats. I believe till January 2024 people were confident that the BJP under Modi would win a big victory and that nothing could stop Modi from becoming PM for the straight 3rd term. Nothing was left for doubt after seeing the euphoria and exuberance during the Ram Mandir inauguration. It seemed that winning the 2024 general election would be a cakewalk for the BJP and the 2024 general election is just a formality. But then things started changing.
BJP set the stage ready for the 400-plus target. It took all possible care to make the number calculation perfect state by state - UP, Maharashtra, Bengal, and Bihar. In UP, BJP is well placed and SP & BSP possibly have been taken care of. We are not seeing any buoyancy in the SP. SP seems fighting the election just to fight. BSP is a known B team of BJP to divide the non-BJP votes in UP and in the process cut down SP's prospects.
In Maharashtra, the BJP has already made an extensive alliance with Sinde Siv Sena and Ajit Pawar NCP. In Bihar, JDU has been brought back to the NDA. I believe that in Bengal also BJP is not leaving everything to chance There is a fair amount of chance that BJP offered a deal to Mamata for a few more extra seats. Possibly that could be the reason Mamata came out of a seat-sharing deal with the INDI alliance block.
In Andhra BJP has an alliance with TDP and Janasena. In Telangana, it will be a direct fight between Congress and BJP. In Tamil Nadu, the BJP looks confident to rake in a few seats under K Annamalai’s leadership. Karnataka BJP allied with JDS. So overall BJP looked completely ready to take the fragmented opposition at loggerheads. People were talking about BJP victory enthusiastically.
However, suddenly the undercurrent seems to change drastically. The reason could be the exposure of the Electoral Bond, Kejriwal’s arrest, freezing of Congress bank accounts, and serving massive IT notice to Congress asking Congress to pay income tax of over Rs.3000 crores. Hijacking Congress candidates, manipulating Chandigarh mayoral election, EVM controversy, CAA implementation, etc. On 31 January the ED (Modi government) went for Hemant Soren’s arrest on an alleged 8.5-acre land scam. The land is said to be worth Rs. 31 crores. The evidence that has been produced by the ED is money receipts for a TV and a Fridge bought by the caretaker. Then the ED went for Kejriwal’s arrest.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi with Jharkhand CM Champai Soren, JMM leader Kalpana Soren during an election campaign in support of INDIA Alliance and JMM candidate Joba Manjhi for Lok Sabha election, at Chaibasa in West Singhbhum district, on May 7, 2024. | Photo Credit: PTI
People perceive these arrests as election-bound activities to destroy the remaining traces of opposition, Not a single individual within the nation or internationally is convinced that these actions are the outcome of regular processes. The release of the Electoral Bond details badly exposed the corrupt nation of the government. Kejriwal has been arrested on an alleged scam of around Rs.100 crores which is yet to be established. Whereas BJP has received electoral bond contributions worth Rs.55 crores from people involved in the same case. There are instances of organizations buying EB of huge volume after being raided by ED/CBI/IT. There are instances of organizations receiving huge government contracts after buying electoral bonds.
Meanwhile, Prajwal Revanna’s sexual escapades could pose a big disadvantage for the BJP in the South and even spoil the BJP’s image in the North. BJP is traditionally known for supporting scandalous people. It was silent about the Manipur case, it was silent about Unnao and Hathras rape case, it was silent about the Gujarat riot. It facilitated the release of the convicted rapist and murders. Now it is silent about Prajwal Revanna. It is this silence that makes the BJP an accomplice in the crime. BJP should have condemned Prajwal Revanna but as usual, Modi is silent. Possibly BJP is tightlaced because of its alliance with JDS. The make it worse for the BJP there has been a sexual allegation against the West Bengal Governor.
People are now afraid that if BJP is given a 3rd term, it could be disastrous for the nation. The Constitution could be altered, democracy may be at great risk. Meanwhile, none of the scam allegations against Congress could be proved by the Modi government. Price hikes and tax increases have made life of people miserable. Unemployment and job loss have become an acute problem. The neutral voters seem to no longer support the BJP. In fact, a section of BJP supporters are not sure that Modi is doing right. There has been a drop of around 4% in voter turnout in the first two phases of the poll. This has drastically increased the uncertainty.
Today was the 3rd phase of the poll. As per the Election Commission latest report the voter turnout for the Phase 3 voting of Lok Sabha Polls held on May 7 was approximately 63.23 percent across 93 seats. The turnout percentage may go up marginally when the final report comes. Notably Gujarat--57.43 per cent and Uttar Pradesh--57.34 per cent saw the lowest turnout. Another big state Maharashtra, voter turnout was 60.86 percent. In MP we see a drop of more than 10% if we compare it with the assembly election 2023. Even if we compare it with the general election 2019, there is a clear-cut drop of 5% turnout. Overall the excitement is missing. As such nobody is sure what is there in store. it is in this perspective this question is gaining increased momentum. At least some people feel that Modi might face the fate that Congress faced in 2014.
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