Economics and Politics. Together we go far. We have miles to go before we sleep! : Is Narendra Modi a better prime minister than Manmohan Singh?

Manmohan Singh is far far superior than Modi. Manmohan Singh was miles ahead of Modi. MMS is not a typical politician, he had very limited power, and he was practically a rubber stamp PM. But when it came to steering the economy, he was rock solid. Former US president Obama has a very high opinion about Manmohan Singh. MMS kept the economy on the growth path, he made sure that the economy was not disturbed, that people did not interfere in the economic domain. He made sure that qualified and capable people ran the economy. When it came to taking action against terrorists he was far far tougher than Modi. Though MMS has his share of criticism for being silent on corruption. However, he initiated a CBI inquiry for each of the major corruption allegations. But in both cases - Coal Gate and 2G, the court has given a clean chit to all the accused (a few officers were held guilty of not following the process)

The Bhaskar article states that 4,241 terrorists have been killed in 10 years of Manmohan Singh's rule while 701 terrorists were killed in four and half years of Modi's government.

The above statistics are from Home Ministry report ( reference attached )

I would suggest not considering the GDP growth achieved during the 1st term of the Modi government, which seems to be inflated. There are two reasons - Firstly Modi government changed the GDP calculation process to income -expenditure method. Now here is a catch, the Modi government has gone for a huge increase in public borrowing to increase its budget expenditure. It has got dual effect - on one side GDP will show an increase because of an increase in government expenditure on the other hand it will show a lower fiscal deficit in the percentage term because of showing higher GDP. But if we see absolute value term there is a huge increase in fiscal deficit. The public debt of India has doubled during the first 6 years of Modi rule from 50 lakhs crores to 98 lakhs crores. The actual picture of deficit financing becomes clear from the huge increase in interest payments. The government has budgeted over 8 lakh crores just for interest payments. Secondly, 38% of firms used by MCA (Ministry of Corporate Affairs) for the calculation of GDP were not traceable or wrongly classified. As such GDP figures as shown by the Modi government are not at all trustworthy.

This fact is doubly proved by the unemployment figure. In the year 2018 when the Indian economy was supposedly the fastest growing economy in the world, India suffered the highest-ever unemployment in 45 years. This is a hugely contrast phenomenon.

India’s public debt level is among the highest in emerging economies with a quantitative easing program underway, while its debt affordability is among the weakest, Moody’s Investors Service said in its report released in April 2021.

“Debt affordability varies widely, with Ghana and India [rated Baa3 negative] weakest. Across the 11 emerging markets, India, South Africa, and Ghana have the highest public debt and weakest debt affordability,” Moody’s report said.

India’s debt-to-GDP ratio has increased to 90%. This makes India the most indebted major economy after Brazil and Argentina among the emerging markets. In South Asia, India now become the most indebted country after Bhutan and Sri Lanka and is worse off than Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal.

Under the Modi government, India’s ranking in the Global Hunger Index has further deteriorated. Countries such as Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Pakistan have been ranked higher than India on the Global Hunger Index at 64th, 73rd, 75th, 78th and 88th spots respectively.

Under MMS rule media had much higher freedom. There was nothing called GODI media. RTI act had it’s teeth. Over 26,000 RTI pleas pending since 2014. Modi government has been successful in cutting the power of CIC. As of July 23, 2019, 28,442 appeals and 3,209 complaints were pending before the body. In total, there are 31,651 cases pending.

The judiciary has lost its shine. It is a widespread opinion that the Indian judiciary has lost its independence.

Manmohan Singh looks feeble, he speaks less but he is rock solid in his action. In 2008, while the global economy was shaking Indian economy stood strong. Not a single Indian bank failed while hundreds of US banks failed. Since the start of 2008, the year the financial crisis erupted, 445 banks have failed. But MMS didn’t allow the recession to make any dent in the Indian banking system. Whereas Modi has brought down the entire Indian banking system to its knees. He already has two bank’s failures in his credit apart from from failure of a huge number of Indian enterprises. We are having NPA of around 9=6 lakhs crore even after writing off more than 14 lakhs crores.

One of my readers made allegations that I misrepresented the facts and that the NPA was actually a creation of the UPA government. This happens when people believe too much in Modiomics. Modi has always been the champion of passing on the blame and a section of people still believes that Modi has done wonders in spite he destroying the economy and employment.

The RBI says that on June 30, 2014, the gross NPAs of these banks were worth Rs 2,24,542 crore. Let's consider that another 5 lakhs crores NPA on a very wild guess, was never shown in the books. Then the total NPA in 2014 would be around 7 lakhs crore, But this much amount is already written off why then we are still having an NPA worth around 6 lakh plus crores. Secondly, if the Modi government feels that the entire NPA is the creation of the UPA government, why has it failed to make a written declaration or publish a White Paper?

One of my dear friends has referred to a chart showing the ratio of Fiscal deficit in terms of GDP. If we go by that chart, we should all be very happy that the economy has actually improved over MMS days. But the reality is just the opposite. So it would be absolutely meaningless to get into a debate on this point. Expert on Modinomics knows how to manage such figures. I would simply put a few questions. 1. If the Fiscal deficit actually has gone down why the public debt has become double in just six years, rather than going down. 2. Why India’s Debt to GDP ratio has increased to an unprecedented 90%. Why our interest payment has gone by up 170% in just seven years. If our fiscal deficit has gone down our debt should have gone down, not gone up. Modi government is an expert in throwing such contrasting data. If someone goes a little deep would understand how these things are done.

I have already written that the GDP figure provided by the Modi government is not at all trustworthy. It can not happen that GDP would grow by 0.9 trillion US$ ( supposedly) and unemployment would be highest ever. Here the government has used two tricks - first inflated the GDP figure by using 38% bogus data which is non-existent. Secondly changing the GDP calculation method by switching to the income-expenditure method from the traditional method of goods and services produced. Here government spending of borrowed money ( 50 lakh crores) has further helped to inflate the GDP number. Whereas nobody becomes rich by borrowing money. Tomorrow the government will show that the GDP has become US$ 5 trillion and show a drastic reduction in fiscal deficit. So that it can show that the economy has actually improved, not deteriorated. If one wants to get the correct picture look at the Debt to GDP ratio ( which is at 90%) and the provision made for interest payment in the budget (23% of the budget). Even after this if people want to believe that Fiscal Deficit has gone down - I would like to congratulate them.

The scope of this answer I have mostly limited to the economic field. However, I have mentioned the internal security aspect of Kashmir since this was also one of the major criticisms against Manmohan Singh.

One of the readers has opined me as a MMS fan. Possibly there are people who live in a different world, where the destruction of the economy doesn’t affect them or they are totally insulated and privileged class. We have to congratulate such people for having such an envious position where economic downfall doesn’t affect them, government’s failure on Corona doesn’t affect them.

A PM with dubious academics obviously doesn’t come into comparison with a highly qualified economist like MMS. If someone wants to defy that, he should propose Modi to close all the IIT, IIM, and AIIMS immediately. As regards Modi’s capability and achievement, I would like to highlight some other areas for consideration in reading. Modi has been absolutely incapable even during his CM days.

Following is the list of the top 15 Indian states and union territories by NSDP per capita. Net state domestic product (NSDP) is the state counterpart to a country's Net domestic product (NDP), which equals the gross domestic product (GDP) minus depreciation on a country's capital goods.

You can see that Gujarat stood at a distant 11th rank for the year 2018–19. And for the year 2011–12, Gujarat ranked 15th, when Modi was the CM. So Gujarat was never amongst the most developed states.

The below graph shows the prevalence of malnutrition among children <5 yrs across the six administrative divisions in Gujarat, as per the Comprehensive Nutrition Survey in Gujarat (CNSG), conducted under the aegis of the Women & Child Development, Govt. of Gujarat in 2014.

Underweight - too thin for age, Wasting - too thin for height, Stunting - too short for age.

Among the other vital indicators such as Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR), Neo-Natal Mortality rate (NNR), and Under-5 Mortality Rate (U5MR), Gujarat ranked 6, 13, and 10 respectively during 2008-10, and ranked 12 and 6 for birth rate and death rate respectively (SRS Bulletin, 2011, Government of India, 2011 and (Vital Statistics-Indiastat, 2010). This relatively below-par performance of Gujarat (compared to other states) does raise concerns and issues regarding the functioning and efficacy of the healthcare system. And this was by any means not good looking into India’s poor position India in nutrition. As per the Global Hunger Index Bangladesh, Bhutan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar are all far better than us.

Failure in Governance. Delhi has the highest crime rate amongst the metropolis.
He failed to stop the Uri attack, the Pathankot attack, the Pulwama attack, and many more… He has failed to maintain internal as well as external security. The highest number of Cease Fire violations has happened in Modi’s tenure. Ceasefire violations by Pakistan at record 17-year high. Minister of State for Defence Shripad Naik said that 3,186 incidents of ceasefire violations were reported along the LoC in Jammu region between January 1 and September 7,2020. In 5 years from 2014 to 2018, the death of jawans in terror attacks rose by 106% in J&K
Three of the BJP-ruling states had the highest rate of rape in the country in 2018. Registering the highest number of rape cases in 2018, Madhya Pradesh retains the dubious distinction of being the rape capital of India for eight consecutive years. In the National Crime Record Bureau Report 2018 MP with the fifth highest population in the country accounted for 5,433 rape cases out of 33,356 recorded across the country in 2018. MP is followed by Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh with 4,335 and 3,946 rape cases registered respectively. Now in both UP & MP, BJP is in power. In MP BJP has been in power for the last 20 years. In Rajasthan, the BJP was in power in 2018.
Drop in ranking Global Hunger index. India falls to 102 in the hunger index, 8 ranks below Pakistan. India was ranked 102nd on the Global Hunger Index, an index of 117 countries. It was the lowest ranked among South Asian countries (the rest being ranked between 66 and 94) and way behind the other BRICS nations, the lowest of which was South Africa at 59.
Drop in freedom of press index. India ranks 142nd on the global press freedom index, dropping from 140th rank in 2014.
Failure to uphold democratic values, for example, pulling down the elected governments. The judiciary has lost its shine. RTI diluted. RBI’s autonomy was robbed off. Pulling down elected government and taking power through the back door, forming minority governments etc.
He grossly failed to run the PSB & PSUs. The government is planning wholesale disposal of PSUs even though PSUs are critical for national security. Even pushing the privatization of organizations like ISRO. He has opened even the education sector for FDI, making education a full-flagged business venture and selling it to foreign investors.
Between 2014 and 2020, India saw a 10x rise in excise duty in diesel prices. In 2014, the excise duty on diesel was Rs 3.56, and that on petrol was Rs 9.40. And now, in 2020, the excise duty has increased at least 10 times. The excise duty on diesel is now Rs 31.83 and on petrol Rs 32.98.
Dollar exchange value 2014 (15 May) Rs.59.44, 15th May 2020 Dollar price USD = Rs.75.82.
24 carat Gold price in May 2014 was Rs/10gm ₹27,377 and on 12th October,2020 ₹50,820.
He has visited China 9 times - but utter failure. He has visited the US 6 times - utter failure, the US removed the GSP benefit, removed India from the developing nation list, forced India to cut off crude imports from Iran, a deal in the Indian Rupee. He visited Nepal - 4 times - but utter failure.
India’s performance in Corona is the worst among the neighborhoods both in terms of the number of cases and casualties per million population. India has the 2nd highest number of Corona cases in the world.
Under the Modi government, India lost the developing economy tag. Trump government removed the GSP benefit for the Indian exporter.
Industries across all sectors have started collapsing, raising NPA. Apart from Adani and Ambani, most other top Indian billionaires have lost their net worth by 1/3 to 2/3 proportion.
Indian economy has contracted by 24% in Q1. 12 Crores employment loss. ICRA revises India's GDP contraction to 11% from 9.5% for FY21 as COVID-19 runs wild. Indian economy is expected to be the worst-hit major economy. India's GDP contraction is worse than any other G20 nations, says Gita Gopinath. India is the third poorest country in South Asia, with only Pakistan and Nepal reporting lower per capita GDP, while Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, and Maldives would be ahead of India.