PMK and DMDK have moved to AIADMK alliance. How do you see this move and what are your views on the chances of NDA in Tamil Nadu?

I feel BJP distancing from AIADMK is just a clever ploy to improve AIADMK’s poll performance. People of Tamil Nadu look at the BJP with suspicion as a pure North Indian party. That one reason is enough for not voting for the BJP or anything connected to the BJP. So splitting the alliance with AIADMK is a smart move. The post-election alliance door is always open. And AIADMK can always extend external support. AIADMK came out of NDA to improve its poll performance. BJP also desperately wants AIADMK to improve its number.

BJP secured a 3.66% vote share in the 2019 Tamil Nadu general election and a 2.62 vote share in the 2021 assembly election. In my estimate, BJP’s vote bank comprises the upper caste votes in Tamil Nadu. Brahmins constitute only 2.5%-3% of the Tamil Nadu population. Tamil Brahmins are divided into two major denominations: Iyers and Iyengars. The Iyers believe in the Smarta tradition. It reflects a synthesis of four philosophical strands, namely Uttara Mīmāṃsā, Advaita, Yoga, and theism. Iyengers on the other hand adhere to the tradition of Sri Vaishnavism.

The largest population of the Iyers reside in Nagercoil, making up almost 13% of the city's population. They are also in significant numbers in Chennai, Coimbatore, Madurai, Thiruchirappalli, Thanjavur, Palakkad, Alappuzha, Kozhikode, Ernakulam, Kannur, and Thiruvananthapuram. So constituency-wise the number of votes may vary.

I believe seat share wise both PMK and DMDK had been fringe parties for the Tamil Nadu general election. Though PMK had a sizable vote share of 5.36% in 2019, it couldn’t win a single seat out of 7 seats it contested. DMDK fought in 4 seats and won zero with a 2.16% vote share. So I do not think PMK & DMDK moving to alliance with AIADMK breaking out of NDA would make any difference. After the AIADMK, these two parties were the major constituent in the NDA block in 2019. PMK was with NDA in the 2021 assembly election also with a reduced vote share of 3.80%. PMK’s vote share might further go down in the 2024 general election. I honestly do not see any chance for NDA or the AIADMK alliance unless some miracle happens, or DMK does some utter stupidity or some EVM game. Last time BJP contested 5 seats and with alliance support 3.66% vote share. This time BJP is free to contest all the seats but practically without any alliance support.

People of Tamil Nadu should vote as per their conscience without being influenced by the size of the crowd in the election rallies. It has been seen that even the fringe parties are bringing huge crowds to the election rallies by sheer money power.