I have just read an answer from Kanthaswamy Balasubramaniam Sir. He has put up a brilliant analogy of the subject. For the last few days, he has been writing a number of answers on the subject extensively deliberating on the prospect of election results. I believe he is the only author to put up such elaborate analyses. The pro-BJP authors except one, are practically hiding behind the wall or have gone underground. Possibly they will surface if the BJP gets the majority on 4th June. This time I have perpetually avoided making any prediction despite a strong urge because that has been my passion area. I will not make any comments on KB Sir’s number analogy since it would indirectly mean that I am making some predictions. Let’s see if I can hold this self-restraint till the 4th of June.
The lower voter turnout in the 3 phases of the election definitely will have a story to tell. The political pundits are working on analyzing what would be that story. However, I believe sizable inputs are available with the BJP from people who have conducted the exit poll. Plus BJP must be having its own extensive intelligence network. Plus constituency-wise, block-wise as well as booth-wise inputs will be available with BJP from the election commission. So BJP will have a concrete idea about voting patterns, vote bank, trend analysis, and comparison with previous state and general elections.
For analysts like me, not having such an in-depth data bank makes it practically impossible to draw a sound inference at this stage. What we know is that there is a 5% drop in the turnout and we have state state-wide dropout percentage also. Possibly we will get constituency-wise figures as well. But compiling such huge data and drawing out sound inference would require a massive infrastructure and resource base. Which is possible only at the organization level. So I believe only the BJP is having a fair idea about the ground pulse on the pan-India level. Possibly the result is not very encouraging for the BJP. And it is no longer asserting the claim to 400 plus.
I strongly believe that BJP had a picture of crossing the magical number 400 which is the 2/3rd majority. It was just rhetoric to make the party workers excited and push them for maximum throughput as well as to mislead the public. This is not possible without any extraordinary wave/swing or swing in favour of BJP unless some massive EVM manipulation is done. This wouldn’t have been possible even if the turnout had not dropped. A 15% jump in NDA’s current base doesn’t look possible in any way. NDA already has a very big base. There is hardly any scope to push it beyond.
So voter turnout dropout or no dropout, the assertion of 400 plus seats is simply not realistic. However yes, the 5% drop definitely makes the game interesting. Who are these people who didn’t vote? More or less this drop in turnout has been uniform in all three phases. So possibly the dropout percentage will be maintained till the end. The reason could be anything for dropout, but it is going to cut vote share for some people for sure and it is going to happen across states. Now the question comes whether the drop is uniformly distributed across party lines, or is going to impact any specific party more, or whether the pattern will be different for different states.
This time I do not expect Congress votes to be divided, rather Congress votes could be consolidated across the nation. Because the reduced number of voters are very conscious voters, and they are going to vote decisively. It is the casual voters who have not turned up to the booth. Another section that was very excited to make their party winner in 2019, but not this time would have given a miss. I have a feeling that the fringe parties in respective states could be losers. In a state like UP, the picture could be a little more critical since there is no close No 2. Both SP & BSP have lost their relevance to a large extent so far as the national election is concerned. BJP may not lose many votes in UP but there could be some consolidation of opposition votes. BJP may retain its vote share in UP.
However, in Bihar & Maharashtra, things could be very complex, particularly Maharashtra. Maharashtra is very keenly contested among so many factions, that the voters are going to face a battle for their loyalty. Say for example they have to choose between Shinde Sena & Uddhav Sena, senior Pawar, or the junior Pawar. In Bihar, the battle could be very close. Nitish has lost his credibility for multiple somersaults. Plus his Karishma is fading. RJD has become stronger and possibly Congress also gained some base.
The MP picture looks a bit hazy with a massive 10% drop in turnout from the assembly election in 2023. A large section of the BJP workers may not be very motivated. The senior party leadership is antagonized. So combined with the 10% drop things could be difficult for BJP. The new CM Mohan Yadav didn’t get much time to establish his hold.
Unlike 2019, BJP does not have a hot subject like Pulwama & Balakot. Modi has stopped talking about corruption. He can’t talk about it anymore. Now nobody believes that Congress was most corrupt. Ram Mandir tempo was at its peak in January. It's not possible to reap the benefit in April-May. In UP there may be some residual effect, but not outside UP. IIT, IIM, AIIMS, Highway, Airport, GDP numbers, etc don’t influence the common voters much. The free ration is nothing new and for all practical purposes, it will continue with whoever comes to power. So BJP holding its 2019 vote share looks fairly difficult.
If there is a drop in BJP’s vote share, its alliance partner in NDA also could face a similar drop. Whereas I do not see any possibility for Congress vote share to go down. Rather Congress vote share might see some consolidation. So it is not only the drop in turnout, what is more important, is the distribution and redistribution of votes polled. You can not say that the distribution would be the same as in 2019. In 2019 BJP gained around 6.36% vote share whereas Congress retained its vote share of 2014. This means there is practically very little chance of Congress vote share to further go down in 2024. So this 5% drop in turnout could lead to a drop in BJP’s vote share. Plus if the distribution pattern changes a little there could be a big change in the number game.
If we compare the pro-BJP sentiment of 2014, 2019, and 2024, it looks like the shine has gone in 2024. Does anybody feel that it is at par with 2014 & 2019 or it has gone up in 2024? I do not think so. Yes possibly BJP as a party is much better organized and it has a much better penetration in booth-level politics in comparison to 2019. In my constituency, I have seen a lackluster presence of BJP workers. I have not seen any excitement among the workers. Which actually puzzled me. Why so? Is the BJP already confident of the victory? And this is when the Congress candidate is perceived to be much better at the individual level. Has the BJP worker already accepted a possible defeat or do they have some sure-shot arrangement of victory? I do not think that BJP keeps a hope of winning 400 seats.
No comments:
Post a Comment