Will it be possible for the BJP to get at least one seat in Tamil Nadu?

I am sure BJP knows its constraints and limitations in Tamil Nadu. But the party has been relentlessly mounting unending waves of efforts to penetrate the Dravidian stronghold. I am sure their strategists know exactly how & where to find a crack. BJP had won MP states in the past mostly because of its alliances with the Dravidian parties (AIADMK in 1998 and DMK in 1999). AIADMK had allowed the BJP to win three Lok Sabha seats in 1998 and four in 1999 by DMK. However, BJP notably won one seat - Kanniyakumari in 2014 without an ally. So apparently it may not be difficult for the BJP to win at least one seat in Tamil Nadu.

Will we see a Saffron surge in TN this time? BJP supporters welcome Prime Minister Narendra Modi at an event in Tiruppur | PTI

BJP has a reasonable base in certain pockets in the state. Kanniyakumari-Nagercoil-Tirunelveli belt, and a few more pockets in Ramanathapuram as well as a few assembly segments like Coimbatore South have sizable presence of BJP. BJP could be confident of Kanniyakumari and the Coimbatore seats. K. Annamalai is fighting from the Coimbatore seat.

BJP suddenly gained a 29.01% vote share in 2014 and was quite close to winning the seat in 2014. And the saffron party has been able to retain the gain in 2019 also with 31.47% vote share. BJP won the seat in both 1998 & 1999. CPI(M) is quite strong in this constituency. The Coimbatore Lok Sabha constituency is comprised of Six assembly constituencies, five in AIADMK’s possession and one in BJP’s possession. So this could be an interesting game to watch out for. If the typical south votes get divided between DMK & AIADMK this time BJP may have a fair chance to win.

In contrast, Kanniyakumari could be a different story where Congress is really strong. However, BJP is also reasonably strong with almost 40% vote share. BJP won the seat in 2014 and has been able to hold its vote share. In the last two elections in 2019 & 2021, BJP fought this seat in alliance with AIADMK and the Congress fought this seat in alliance with DMK. This time AIADMK and BJP both fighting from this seat. But that should not trouble BJP as it won the seat despite both AIADMK & DMK being in the fray. The battle could be interesting if AIADMK can cut some votes of INC. BJP votes more or less remain the same.