Should Amit Shah worry about the growing popularity of Yogi Adityanath?

 Yes, Amit Shah definitely has to worry about the growing popularity of Yogi Adityanath They are the two front-running successors of Modi. Within BJP no one has so much clout to oppose them. Rajnath Singh has already crossed 70 years, and by 2024 he will be 73 years. So he is practically out of the contender list, possibly he is even out as an influencer. But given a chance, his vote will go to Amit Shah. Rajnath Singh has made the biggest blunder of his life and political career by not supporting Advani to become PM. Otherwise, he could have been the PM today. In the twilight of his political career he would possibly like to make some course corrections even though whatever damage he could have done, he has done.

In the fight between Amit Shah and Yogi, possibly other BJP leaders would be afraid to take any side. If they end up being on the loser side, their political career will be over. So the entire decision would be on Modi and RSS. Whichever leader has the support of Modi and RSS will become the PM candidate after Modi. RSS holds all the power that neither Yogi nor Amit Shah can overrule. Though it seems that Yogi has a slight upper edge over Amit Shah so far RSS influence is concerned.

However, Amit Shah scores over Yogi in other areas. He has been in national politics since 2014, has been the party president, and currently holds the Home Ministry portfolio. Amit Shah has far better control over the party organization across the country. Plus he shares better bonds with other national leaders within the party as well as outside the party. Though Amit Shah has two problems - he currently looks to be out of Modi’s favour and secondly not being from a power state like UP. If he is made PM candidate, in all possibility he will not have Yogi’s support, which would complecate his prospects.

Yogi Adityanath’s problems are also not small. His hardcore image may have endeared him to the extreme hardliner faction of Hindu voters. But these hardliners form only a small section of entire BJP supporters. See his condition in UP, he is not even sure of winning the state election on his own and is extensively dependent on Modi’s charm. Modi is required to visit UP every other day to help Yogi. Yogi would require entire party support, ED, IT, CBI raids, propaganda works, plus division of opposition of vote to win next year’s assembly election.

Would BJP make someone a PM candidate who can’t even win his state election on his won forget about helping the party in the national election? In that respect, Mamata are Kejriwal are far superior to Yogi, they have won their respective election their won. They won their election fighting against the star-studded BJP single-handedly without any support of the central government, PM, ED, IT, CBI etc. Even Himanta is far superior to Yogi. He made the BJP winner both in 2016 as well as in 2021 totally on his strength without playing any religious card. Modi & Amit Shah didn’t have to visit Assam every other day

From this angle, Amit Shah is much ahead of Yogi. Amit Shah played a big-big role in BJP’s victory in 2014 as well as in the 2019 election, also in the 2017 UP election, plus in strengthening the party organisation. Amit Shah might have lost favour of Modi a little, but that doesn’t reduce his credibility.

Amit Shah also may be a hardliner like Yogi (though a shade lower), but his political credibility is not dependent on wearing saffron. Which makes his acceptability better from the national perspective. BJP and RSS have to take a very big risk to field Yogi as PM candidate over Amit Shah. Amit Shah would definitely not accept Yogi as PM candidate, and without his support, Yogi can’t even dream of winning the national election at least not with J P Nadda. Plus the nation would think 10 times before electing a saffron-clad Yogi as PM. Rather I believe fielding Yogi as the PM candidate will be the biggest gift that BJP can give to the opposition.

So BJP has a complete problem in terms of selecting a successor to Modi. BJP is fighting the 2024 election under Modi’s banner to avoid infighting. If BJP wins, he will hand over the reign maybe after a year of his rule in his 3rd term. Yogi’s fortune depended a lot on the outcome of the UP election. If he had managed to win with last term’s majority, internally it would have been very difficult to stop Yogi. But since he managed to win with lesser numbers, his stature has been cut to size. Observe the UP election and Amit Shah’s role, and you will get to know a lot.

Both Yogi and Amit Shah will be fighting a contrasting battle. See the problem of Amit Shah, he has to help Yogi to win the national election since UP elects 80 MPs - not getting big numbers from UP, might close his door to his ambition. On the other hand, Yogi has to take the help of Amit Shah whom he has to defeat in the race for the PM’s chair.