Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Do you think that if BJP wins 2024 elections, it will be a death blow to the regional parties?

Interesting question. To answer this question I would like to refer to the economics textbook. I don’t exactly remember with which particular chapter of economics I started my learnings of economics. Possibly it was demand and supply. Then I came across Keynes' Theory of Trade Cycles, popularly known as the Keynesian theory of trade cycle. Though it is predominantly connected to the sphere of economics, I believe it is applicable in a much wider perspective.

A trade cycle refers to the high and low in economic activities, especially in employment, output and income, prices, profits, etc. According to Keynes, “A trade cycle is composed of periods of good trade characterised by rising prices and low unemployment percentages altering with periods of bad trade characterised by falling prices and high unemployment percentages”.

Anyway, I believe the Keynesian theory of the trade cycle can be applied or applied to multiple dimensions of life. For example, the populations of deer and tigers in a forest are interconnected. If the deer population goes up, that will create a favourable atmosphere for the growth of the tiger population. In turn, when the tiger population goes up the deer population will go down. With the reduction of the deer population, the tiger population will face a shortage or scarcity of food and finally, it will bring down the tiger population. The Tiger population going down will stimulate the growth of the dear population again. This is the typical way a trade cycle works.

If BJP wins the 2024 general election it will have a favourable condition to eat up the regional parties. There would be none to stop the BJP. Media, Election Commission, ED, IT, and CBI are all under BJP’s control. The judiciary seems compromised to a large extent. There would be none to protect the leftover regional parties. Most are already under BJP control. Which means the deer population would drastically go down. That would not be a very healthy situation for the tiger. There would be food scarcity for the tiger. Moreover, the growing population of tigers would squeeze their respective zone and clashes would occur among themselves.

People might say that India would go the China way of single-party rule. But India is not China. Secondly, Mao took over power in 1949 to establish a single-party rule in China. It is not possible to establish single-party rule in India freshly in the twenty-first century. People know that the Lion and tiger population in India has gone down drastically and the Cheetah has become extinct. So deer population going down has not been any good news for the tiger and lion populations in India. BJP might go-ahead for the kill of the regional parties. With all the ammunition in its hand, it would not be a difficult task. But it will only expedite BJP’s end.

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