Modi government has to ask itself why its decisions backfire ? It would understand the reasons very clearly.
When Modi government implemented Demonetization entire nation cooperated or rather forced to cooperate. By and large Public din’t come to the street in protest baring few stray incident. But the government miserably failed to manage demonetization and its after affect . Entire nation had to suffer painful & tumultuous time for 50 days and much beyond. The only possible gain was that the entire opposition party fund source dried up and the BJP could win the UP election. But no Black Money found.
Indian economy has gone into slump immediately after the demonitisation. Even though almost the entire currency has come back to circulation rather there has been an increase of 19% in currency note supply, the demand for goods and services has not come back to the market at pre demonitisation level. India is suffering from the highest unemployment is last 45 year with loss of crores of employment, the GDP growth rate is at lowest in last 6 years. Our current account deficit(CAD) increased drastically
Our banks profitability has gone dwindling down. Following Chart gives the sickening picture of NPA
Gross NPAs jump to 11.2% or Rs 10.39 tln in FY18: RBI Report -System-wide gross NPAs of banks rose to 11.2% or at Rs 10.39 trillion in FY18 from 9.3 percent a year ago.
Secondly after demonetization investors are skeptic about making fresh investment, convert asset to liquid cash. For fear of investigation. everybody is sitting tight. Unless there is a atmosphere of trust and confidence the situation is not going to improve. The more government use force the more the investment will elude. Government became hostile in search of back money.
Finally it seems Government has got up from slumber’s chain and thinking positively understanding it’s mistake. Government trying restore the confidence of wealth creator. The notion is being disproved that this government is inclined to go through prosecution; we are more in favour of penalty than prosecution where possible; we have withdrawn 14,000 prosecutions under Companies Act: Nirmala Sitharaman
Government brought a half cooked GST again public cooperated. But here again the government failed to bring the expected boost to the economy, rather the economy had to suffer due to half cooked GST and poor implementation. CAA backfired for a different reason. It backfired for government’s arrogance and forcing it down through people throat. You can’t force people to have “Rasgulla” even. If you know the art of selling, you would be able sell chili at a high price and if you don’t know the art you will not able sell even sugar.
The CAA backfire is purely because of government’s arrogance and imprudence.
For a pandemic situation like this the nation looks up to our leader to show path. People followed the cardinal rule that in a difficult time like we should all stand under one umbrella. The nation has pledged it's wholehearted and trust on the Prime Minister to work out whatever strategy or action plan he finds most suitable for the nation. When Modi called up for the Janta Curfew, the entire nation stood beside him to make the move successful. The move was also successful since advance notice was given so that people could be ready, further the call was for a short spell of 14 hours that too on a Sunday.
Now this kind of unquestioned trust puts up a great responsibility on the solder of the leader that his decision be fool proof. Nobody deny the need of the lockdown, in fact people were expecting it much earlier. The government should have imposed the lockdown at least 7–10 days before. No doubt its a bold decision by Modi. But question arises whether the decision could have been better planned?
There is a huge difference between a Janta Curfew and 21 days Lockdown. Modi called for Janta Curfew on Thursday on March 22, giving two full day’s time to be prepared. Whereas for 21 days lockdown he gave only 4 hours time. If the lockdown was imminent, it could have been announced on 21st itself or before, or some advisory should have been floated 10 days before. A vast country like India with 137 crore population just can not halt down withing 4 hour’s notice.
India actually got sufficient time to be ready for such situation. Why the magnitude of the migrant workers problem were not taken in to cognizance and consideration. Did central government consulted the states, or the states shared their concerns to center ?
India’s Coronavirus Lockdown Leaves Vast Numbers Stranded and Hungry
Millions of migrant laborers in Indian cities live and eat where they work, and the sudden shutdown of businesses has upended their lives. Anger is rising. In one of the biggest migrations in India’s modern history, hundreds of thousands of migrant laborers have begun long journeys on foot to get home, having been rendered homeless and jobless
As of Sunday morning, just one of India’s 36 state and territorial governments, Uttar Pradesh, had made arrangements to bring migrants home, commissioning about 1,000 buses. On Saturday, migrants waited in lines miles long on the outskirts of Delhi to board a few buses, and the overwhelming majority were turned away.
But by Sunday afternoon, the central government had ordered states to reverse course and seal their borders, ordering migrants to stay where they are. The reversal added to the already confused rollout of the lockdown, which has prompted state government actions often at odds with the central government’s orders. The police, often confused, have resorted to violence.
THIS- Scenes from Anand Vihar bus station. Disheartening.
Video courtesy: @furquansid #CoronaLockdown #MigrantsOnTheRoad #SocialDistancing
The fight against hunger has overtaken the fight against Corona. If the situation is not addressed immediately all the good intention of calling lockdpown will get defeated. The plight of the migrant workers can not be undermined and made out of sight.
Modi government has got a tough task in hand. The situation already seems out of control, And if he fails to handle the situation or it further aggravate PM’s asking for forgiveness may be far from adequate.
Its the responsibility of the government to take correct decision and implement it with minimum pain to people. The government would be directly responsible if people suffer because of its wrong decision or improper implementation.
Somewhere I feel that most of Government’s decisions are emotion driven rather than based on practical insight. Secondly it seems the government is relying more on the incompetent people or “YES Sir” people. And if it continues like this I will not be surprised if more of government’s decision backfires.
Edit:
One of my dear friend have put up an arguments that decisions like demonetization and lockdown are unprecedented in history so there is bound to be errors. I fully agree with the first part that these are unprecedented decision, but I do not agree with the second part, neither the government can be exonerated from responsibility and the ill affect.
Lets take the case lockdown, no doubt its a bold decision. But India is not the first country to impose lockdown because of corona, China imposed lockdown more than month before, number of European countries have gone for lockdown before India. We had enough time in our hand for planning should India face a situation of imposing lockdown. As well we had time to work out contingency plan to tackle the challenges and things that could go wrong. Its clearly evident that the issue of migrant labourers were not considered in the scheme of things in the planning stage. It was only after the news channel highlighted the plight of the poor migrants we could see some haphazard action, but final solution not known to people. Till then I do not mind taking a lenient view looking into the magnitude of the crisis and at least PM has asked for forgiveness with humility.
But while it comes to demonetization for which the nation is endlessly suffering, Modi government is squarely responsible for crash of the economy and putting the entire burden on the nation and he is not saying sorry even. A decision taken against the advise of the financial expert and RBI, a decision taken purely on his whims, a decision taken totally disregarding the plight of the economy and the nation. You can not say it was an error. The government is still adamantly saying Demonetisation was a right decision, inspite of crores of people losing their job. The government has been trying to justify the slowdown with all kind of lies like “its cyclical”, “its because of global slowdown” etc.
What is more shocking no corrective action in three years after demonetization. The government was adamant that everything is fine and went hostile after the wealth creators. Inspite of financial expert calling for corrective, the government was in no mood to listen. It was only after the entire nation started making hue & cry because of falling GDP growth rate, rising debt, increasing deficit and increasing unemployment, the government initiated some action.
“The notion is being disproved that this government is inclined to go through prosecution; we are more in favour of penalty than prosecution where possible; we have withdrawn 14,000 prosecutions under Companies Act: Nirmala Sitharaman” The government made some changes in servivg IT notice, few senior IT officers were sent forced retirement. Too little and Too late.
If everything was fine and correct why these correction ?
As regards CAA, I have already said that the backfire is because of arrogance and irresponsible and highhanded way of handling things.
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