It may be difficult to assume that there would rise a strong opposition in near future looking into current unassailable strength of BJP at center.
But the law of life is that what goes up comes down sooner or later. One can only try to prolong the stay at top. However the law of life can not be denounced. There can not be a stagnant situation, either you keep on growing or you start loosing.
Whether opposition is strong or not doesn't make difference. When someone goes up, he goes up because of his own strength not because someone else's weaknesses. And when someone comes down, he or she comes down because of his or her own fault or failure.
When you secure the top position, you do so on your own merit, not because someone else failed. If UPA didn't get elected for the 3rd term, it's because of it's rampant corruption and failure in good governance, they can not blame BJP for their failure. They would have failed any way whether BJP was there to take the benefit or not. If BJP would not have been there some other equation would have worked out. BJP could provide a organised alternative with a positive vibe of “Acche Din Aayenge” So BJP has come to power.
Congress could mange its rule in the first 50 years ( except for a small period post Emergency ) with lot of ease because of the then prevailing socio-economic conditions, literacy rate and general public awareness. Whereas with changes in socio-economic condition, literacy and IT revolution, holding on to power has not been that simple. The opinion formation has been be lightening fast.
Today if you see, BJP doesn’t look that confident, every time in every election rally they are trying to justify there position highlighting failure of UPA government rather than highlighting their success.
When you change your doctor what do you expect from the new doctor ? Would you expect your new doctor to keep on blaming your previous doctor or to cure your disease ? If the second doctor also fails to cure your disease you would change to the third doctor.
In very rare occasion the second doctor would criticise the treatment of previous doctor even if he is in total disagreement, he would prescribe new set of test and new set of medicine. Here doctors are much better professional, they mostly refrain from criticizing their fellow doctor, rather treat each other in a dignified manner. They seldom cross their limit ( domain knowledge or specialization ). A cardiologist would not interfere in neurologist’s treatment procedure. They are the best example of of working together as team, each of them performing in their respective domain.
As against this we always find politicians blaming each other, in-spite of knowing that they all live in the same glass house. You will quite often find leaders who doesn’t know A-B-C-D of economics would not hesitate to criticize policies of eminent economist or make expert comments on economy.
BJP has developed and formed a huge party base and membership structure which has become a major strength for the party. Plus it has the government machinery on its side. Being in power fund generation is much easier. While other parties are facing crisis in managing their organisation structure, budget, maintaining their relevance, maintaining their presence in public domain. To that extent it would be extremely difficult for any party to come to prominence and overthrow BJP.
Under the above circumstances whether NDA will survive next 15 years in government or not or last much longer will totally depend on BJP and its alleys. However the way things stands now it look quite difficult that they would be able to hold on to their strength so long. Already there is a break up with their long term alley Shiv Sena
If you see the election results of Haryana and Maharashtra you will see the germination of tiny buds where a decimated Congress has been able to increase their number. This is inspite of having leadership issue, inspite of having budget constraints, inspite of not having government machinery in their side, INC could increase their number substantially in Haryana and even in Maharashtra they could manage marginal increase. NCP has registered a larger increase in their tally. This is significant. BJP may choose to ignore or try to understand the public mandate.
BJP need not worry about INC or other parties, they have to worry about what they do with their power. They may opt to be arrogant / adamant and distant themselves from people or come closer to people.
In my view the biggest failure of the government post 2019 election victory is that somewhere the Government is loosing it's connect with the masses. And the problem is that the government is not taking notice of the same. I somehow feel that the arrogance level has gone up after back to back two landslide victory in Parliamentary election. Its possible and quite natural. However this is where the leadership is tested. I feel the leadership is focusing more on to Impress the people rather than working to perform.
On nationalist front the government scored quite rapidly in striking out Trippe Talaq and Article 370. And there comes the Ram Mandir verdict as well.
However the three of BJP’s most potent cards have failed generate expected results in both the above state election. West Bengal bye election result also not gone BJP’s favour. Why so ? Whether public has changed its goal post ? In few months after parliamentary election Mamta Banerjee’s TMC has been able to regain some of its lost ground. Why and how ?
Whether public is now more focused on some real issues ? Whether public wants the government to focus on burning issues like employment and economy etc ?
In my view Opposition need to be patient and strengthen their connect with people and stay low profile. The opportunity will present itself on its own, they should be ready to just grab it in right time. its not always the party with muscle power win. That way BJP’s 2014 win was much emphatic since they came to power fighting against a party who was in power and had all the resources.
Again I would say what goes up comes down sooner or later, sometimes at double the speed. Because while going up it has to go against gravity, whereas while coming down gravity makes it easier and faster to come down. And to stay at top you have to constantly fight the gravity.
So if BJP wants to prolong it stay in power it can not afford to increase its weight with ego and arrogance. Heavier object always find it easier to fall.
For more such article please follow me on my In a democracy there is always a need and role for a strong opposition. Strong and meaningful, creditable opposition is rather a pillar of democracy. It makes to government think and evaluate it's plan and policies in the right perspective. I still remember how the entire nation unitedly fought against government proposal to tax PF withdrawal. Opposition's role is to convey public opinion and show mirror to government and help in good governance.
Now Let's come to the subject - is there any hope left for Congress ? Congress has to find the answer. Every organization and institution needs to change with time. It's true for business house and it's true for political parties as well. So many of fortune five hundred companies does has been wiped out of the list or existence. Why ? Because they failed to take notice of change mechanism or resisted change or continued too long with their legacy that they became obsolete or irrelevant.
You can not keep on selling what you sold 1951 ( the year is symbolic ) or the way you sold in 1951. I have already written in one of my article that Congress needs to reevaluate it's doctrines and make corrections of past mistakes. The priorities and need of the country, demography, education, Indian economy, international Geo- political scenario have changed. Unless Congress take cognizance of these charge how can it hope to survive.
China & Russia have made major changes in their political and economic functioning. Yes I am not talking about cosmetic changes. There are successful example of organisation which welcomed timely change and bounced back strongly, take example our very own Bajaj. Had they continued with their old model scooter probably they would have vanished from market.
Please appreciate that these changes I am referring are not external, its far more deeper and is a very painful process where heart burning decisions are to be taken. And on top of it Congress would face severe resource crunch and other set backs. Please understand the throne could be inherited but not the success. Success has to be earned and achieved. The solution need not be within the box, why not out of box thinking ? Why not Blue Ocean Strategy ?
There is strong need for a creditable alternative at center for the sake of democracy. Democracy survive and prosper in co-existence of ruling and opposition. In fact ruling party would not be able do full justice to public mandate unless there is a creditable opposition to debate, compete and amplify the benefits/flaws of its act and policies. Its that debate & competition that brings the best and make them deliver the best.
In India the regional politics and national politics are two different ball game altogether. Take the example of Odisha where BJD got the clear mandate so far state government is concerned, whereas for the central its a different picture. Why ? Because the game, game plan, need, priorities, turf are different. There are regional forces in India however most of them are confined to their own pocket. Hardly any one has any vision in the national or international perspective.
Today other than BJP and Congress ( with limited presence ) there are no other party to fight for the national arena. Please forgive me for not mentioning about others as none of them project any national vision other than their greed for the throne. Congress the way it is would find it very difficult to maintain its relevance and connect to mass voter. And unless it takes corrective action and bring changes to core, its existence could be under question. And that may not be in the interest of democracy. Creating an creditable alternate platform takes a long time.
Thanks for reading
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